This is a debate that I must hear 1 out of every 2 times I’m at the poker table. The gambling types justify their wins and loses by claiming that it’s all luck anyway. Some oppose this, claiming that poker is a game of skill and that the best players will defeat the gamblers over time. So who’s right?

In this Poker Mindset article, I’ll explore both points of view further, and clear up the question once and for all. Then, I’ll teach you how to apply this knowledge to your own poker game to achieve more success. Is poker a game of skill or luck? Find out now.

Poker is all luck… with a large side of skill

Truthfully, both the “gamblers” and the “serious players” are correct to a degree. In each hand the cards you get, as well as, the community cards are completely random. So even the most skilled player in the world cannot do anything to increase their chances of winning, besides making their opponent fold. So seemingly, the game of poker is almost completely luck, but let’s look a bit further.

What’s your primary goal in poker?

Is it to win the most hands? NO! Your primary goal in poker is to win the most money that you possibly can! That’s where the skill comes into play. You can use the following strategies to increase the amount of money you win over time.

1) Choosing to play only quality starting poker hands, while understanding the dynamics of position, chip stack, and selective aggression
2) Using hand reading and analysis skills to determine an opponents possible range of holdings
3) Getting more money in the pot with a winning hand and protecting yourself from loses with a losing or marginal holding

As you can see, both skill and luck play an important role in poker. Now that you understand this important concept, it’s time look at how to apply this knowledge to your own game.

How short term luck affects your results

You can use all the skill in the world to make correct decisions and still lose money in the short term. Let’s say in a $2/5 No Limit game you raise Pocket Aces to $30 and get one caller. For simplicity, lets say there’s $60 in the pot on a flop of Ah, 2h, 9c. You’ve flopped top set and bet 2/3 of the pot ($40) and your opponent quickly calls.

Based on his previous play and quick call you’ve put him on a flush draw. The turn brings 8s and the pot is now $140. You know if your opponent is drawing he needs 4 to 1 on his money to make another call correct, so you decide to bet $100. Making the pot $240 and only giving you opponent 2.4 to 1 (making it incorrect to call if he could see your cards). He calls anyway and the river is the 5h, filling his flush if he was drawing.

You check and your opponent goes all in for his last $300, you fold, frustrated because Aces lost again! (For this example he was nice enough to show Kh,Jh for the nut flush) Even though you made the right decisions and he made the wrong ones, he won the money that particular hand.

That’s where the short term luck factor plays in.

The long term is where the real money’s at

The good news is, for a solid player, the long term nearly negates the luck factor. Take the commonly used example of flipping a coin. Each time you flip a coin the chance of hitting heads or tails is exactly 50%-50%.

So if you flip a coin 10 times, what percentage of the time will the coin land on HEADS exactly 5 times? At first, you may think it’s 50%, but that’s not the case. It’s actually just 25%. The rest of the time it could land on heads anywhere from 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9, or 10 times. That represents the short term luck I discussed in the previous section.

But over time, as you flip the coin more and more times, the number of times it lands on heads or tails will get closer and closer to 50%-50%. To compare this to poker, this means that if you repeat the same correct decisions hand after hand, you will make money over time.

Here are the two key ideas that you should take away from this article

1) Aim to make correct decisions regardless of the outcome in the short term.
2) Focus on playing for the long term. Realize that both bad luck and good luck play a strong role in your short term results, but playing for the long term means that the sum of all your good decisions will make you the money.

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Discuss poker skill vs luck

What is your opinion about poker skill vs luck? Post your comments here, or in our poker forum under Is poker a game of skill or luck?

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