Ignatius37 wrote:
Third, the continuation bet from the preflop raiser. He's not afraid of the flop, or he's representing that he's not. Starting with the first (he's not afraid): I think I'm up against AA, KK, AQ or KQ here and maybe 99. So I'm ahead, unless he's got QQ. However, with people to act behind me, a possible set behind me, open ender and club flush draw, I'd either just call or fold, depending on my read on the rest of the opponents. Depending on their stack sizes, they still may have the implied odds to call your all in. This hand is trouble and I'm looking for a reason to get out of it and this is enough. If someone takes down the pot with A9s or something, oh well. I may have lost money on that hand, but I know I've got a table full of people dying to give me their money, so I wait and pounce later when I have a hand and in control of the action.
Hey everyone, first post here. Looks like a great board! I'm not important enough to start a thread introducing myself so here it is.
Ignatius, I agree with the preflop stuff but I disagree with the post flop play. You need to push here because of all the possible hands you mentioned he could have, including the draws. The other opponents in the pot make you want to push even more. You are most likely ahead right now but a ton of turn cards will either improve your opponents' hands or scare them into submission.
Any club, 6, 8, T, J, K and maybe any ace is bad news for you. It's not that your opponent has that many outs its just that you don't know which of those hands will help him. You're still the favorite to win the hand but you don't know what cards are safe. The pot is big enough that a push here is not overkill. Plenty of worse hands will call you here. UTG call means nothing to me except extra dead money. If he's an average crappy live player the UTG call isn't frightening. If UTG is good, he would have raised. The only way UTGs call could be bad news is if he's a crappy live player and slowplayed a set, which isn't likely.
A fold here is bad because you are very likely ahead and a call is bad because you'd be giving amazing odds for everyone to improve against you. It doesn't matter if your push still gives other people the odds to call. People draw for great odds in fixed limit all the time but that doesn't mean people with TPTK type hands shouldn't bet. Great push, OP.